In a previous blog, I highlighted China’s determination to assert control over Taiwan in the near future, a scenario the global community finds increasingly difficult to prevent. With its clear imperialistic and expansionist ambitions, it is likely that China will continue to push its boundaries on multiple fronts, using every means necessary. Among the territories under China’s gaze are Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, consistent with its broader agenda of territorial expansion.
At the recent BRICS 2024 summit in Kazan, Russia, India’s honourable Prime Minister met with the Chinese President. The media has widely reported the meeting as successful, highlighting significant steps toward resolving the ongoing border disputes. One of the key outcomes is that both nations’ armies will now be allowed to patrol their respective territories in the sensitive areas of the Depsang Plains and Demchok. As per the agreement, soldiers from both countries will patrol the Line of Actual Control (LAC) twice a month for surveillance purposes, purportedly ensuring peace along the border.
While this seems like a positive development, I believe there is more to the story. The Chinese President may have laid the groundwork for a longer-term strategy. China cannot afford to open multiple fronts simultaneously—particularly with Taiwan being a focal point of its immediate ambitions. As a result, China is keen to avoid any confrontation with India for now. Instead, Beijing may be looking to align India more closely with its interests, capitalizing on India’s longstanding support for the One-China policy.
China’s Strategic Calculations
China is playing a careful geopolitical game. By resolving border disputes with India, China buys time to focus on Taiwan, which remains a critical piece in its expansionist agenda. From China’s perspective, aligning India or at least neutralizing its opposition to Chinese moves in Taiwan serves multiple purposes:
- Taiwan Focus: With the Taiwan issue looming large, China cannot afford any distractions, especially from a powerful regional neighbour like India. Securing India’s non-interference is a key part of China’s strategy.
- Russia’s Role: China likely assumes that if India backs its stance on Taiwan, Russia—a close partner to both China and India—will not oppose Chinese aggression in the region. This would leave the United States in a weakened position, isolated in its defence of Taiwan. The US, known for its self-interested foreign policy, would face an uphill battle in rallying global support for Taiwan without backing from key regional players.
- Diplomatic Leverage: With the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy designed to counterbalance China, Beijing wants to weaken any potential coalition that India might lead or join against it. Keeping India diplomatically engaged and limiting confrontation at the border serves China’s goal of preventing the formation of a broader anti-China front.
India’s Complex Dilemma
India finds itself in a challenging geopolitical environment. The situation in its immediate neighbourhood is far from stable: Afghanistan remains volatile, Pakistan continues to pose a threat, and tensions with China over border disputes persist. India, therefore, cannot afford to act impulsively or create new enemies, especially with China, at a time when it needs peace on its borders.
While China and Pakistan are well known for their unreliability, it is important to remember that in international politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies—only permanent interests. Today’s rivals may become tomorrow’s partners out of necessity or mutual benefit.
What Should India Do?
- Strategic Vigilance: India must remain vigilant and continue to scrutinize China’s long-term intentions, especially in regions like Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Agreements on border patrolling are important, but they should not lead to complacency. History shows that China has used diplomatic engagement as a cover for its broader expansionist plans.
- Strengthening Defences: While pursuing diplomatic solutions, India should simultaneously bolster its defence capabilities, particularly in border areas. Improved infrastructure, surveillance, and military preparedness are key to ensuring that India is not caught off guard by any future Chinese manoeuvres.
- Engaging Regional Allies: India should continue to strengthen its ties with other key players in the region, such as Japan, Australia, and ASEAN countries, who share concerns over China’s expansionist policies. While diplomacy with China is necessary, building a strong network of like-minded nations can act as a counterbalance to Chinese influence.
- Leveraging Economic Diplomacy: India’s economic ties with China remain substantial, despite political tensions. India can use this economic interdependence to its advantage by engaging China in trade while maintaining its security concerns. However, India must also diversify its economic partnerships to reduce overreliance on China.
- Staying Non-Aligned but Assertive: India should continue its policy of strategic autonomy. It must avoid being drawn into a binary choice between China and the US, especially on contentious issues like Taiwan. India’s role as a major power is best served by maintaining flexibility in its foreign policy, allowing it to engage with both sides without compromising its own national interests.
- Boosting Self-Reliance in Défense and Technology: India’s long-term security lies in reducing its dependency on foreign arms and technology. By enhancing domestic defence manufacturing and investing in cutting-edge technologies, India can strengthen its position in any future confrontations, whether with China or any other regional adversary.
Conclusion
India’s relationship with China will continue to be shaped by a complex mix of diplomacy, strategy, and defence. While engaging with China diplomatically is necessary to maintain peace along the border, India must remain cautious and strengthen its defences. The reality is that international relations are fluid, with alliances shifting based on evolving interests. By staying vigilant, strengthening its capabilities, and building regional partnerships, India can safeguard its sovereignty and ensure that no nation—be it China or any other—can take advantage in the future.
Jai Hind.
@Spondon Ganguli
I’m the sole owner of this write-up and it is an original piece of work.
Spondon Ganguli teaches Computer Science in a reputed English medium school. Apart from his profession, he writes poetry and short stories.